<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small">"""<br>"<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">But
the fines are effective as a tool to slow folks down. Once a neighbor
gets a fine, the whole neighborhood knows to slow the hell down."</span><div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline"><br></span></div><div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">Is
there data to back this up, or is it just a gut feeling? I thought
Mikaila presented a pretty good argument that this isn't true, and why
other methods are actually superior.</span></div>"""<br><br>There are lots of scholarly studies and research available on this topic.<br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small">Here's a sampling of search results:<br><a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=2017&q=speed+camera+traffic+effect&hl=de&as_sdt=0,31">https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=2017&q=speed+camera+traffic+effect&hl=de&as_sdt=0,31</a><br><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small">I chose a few results at random from several sources and examined the abstracts. Links and excerpts are given below.<br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small"><b>For those who want the executive summary, I pulled five papers, four of which supported the conclusion that speed cameras (not red light cameras) reduce speeding and/or injuries. That fifth study appears to be inconclusive as to whether the cameras served to modify behavior.</b><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small"><br><a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.38324.646574.AE">https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.38324.646574.AE</a> : "Conclusions: Existing research consistently shows that
speed cameras are an effective intervention in reducing road traffic
collisions and related casualties. The level of evidence is relatively
poor, however, as most studies did not have satisfactory comparison
groups or adequate control for potential confounders. Controlled
introduction of speed cameras with careful data collection may offer
improved evidence of their effectiveness in the future."<br><br><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.05926">https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.05926</a>: "This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road traffic collisions
using an approximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation
method. Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range of
estimated effects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the
Empirical Bayes approach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of
causality and confounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR
approach combines propensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average
treatment effect (ATE) estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal
under correct specification of either of the two component models. We develop
this approach within a novel approximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior
predictive distributions for the ATE of speed cameras on road traffic
collisions. Our results for England indicate significant reductions in the
number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE = -30%). Our proposed
method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transport safety
interventions.
"<br><br><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1369847816301632">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1369847816301632</a> : "The purpose of this paper is to describe the results obtained from
analysis of probe vehicle data on the effect of speed enforcement
cameras that were installed at non-urban roads in Israel during
2011–2013. In addition to the contribution regarding the impact of
enforcement cameras, the paper demonstrates the potential (as well as
the challenges) of using probe vehicle data for safety studies. The
analyses in this paper consider 22 installation sites and 12 comparison
sites. The results show that at the installation sites (within 100 m), the 85th percentile speeds exhibited a short-term (two months) reduction of 2.92 km/h (SD = 2.37) and a long-term (one year) reduction of 6.48 km/h (SD = 3.5). An a-symmetric double exponential model is presented to depict the halo effect up to 1.5 km from the installation location."<br><br><a href="http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/9/4/302.short">http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/9/4/302.short</a> : "Results: Camera sites had lower than expected numbers
of injurious crashes up to 300 metres using circles and up to 500 metres
using routes. Routes methods indicated a larger effect than the circles
method except in the 100 metres nearest sites. A 500 metre route method
was used to investigate the effect within strata of time after
intervention, time of day, speed limit, and type of road user injured.
The number of injurious crashes after intervention was substantially
reduced (rate ratio 0.49, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.57) and
sustained throughout two years after intervention. Significant decreases
occurred in daytime and night time, on roads with speed limits of 30
and 60–70 miles/hour and for crashes that injured pedestrians,
motorcycle users, and car occupants."<br><br><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457517302981">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457517302981</a> : "Fixed and mobile speed cameras are an important element of enforcement
initiatives designed to create a strong deterrent effect and improve
road safety. Despite the widespread use of the technology and the need
to create a strong deterrent effect, research has yet to determine if
there is a relationship between levels of exposure to the devices and
subsequent self-reported deterrent effects. As a result, licensed
motorists (<em>N</em> = 536; 51% female) in Queensland (Australia) were
recruited to complete a questionnaire that measured exposure to speed
cameras and associated offending behaviours. Data were analyzed
utilising descriptive, bivariate and multivariate statistics. The key
findings that emerged were: the sample reported a higher level of
exposure to fixed cameras (even though there are more operational mobile
cameras), younger males were most likely to speed and be observant of
speed cameras and that perceived certainty of apprehension was the
largest reported deterrent force. However, a positive (rather than
negative) relationship was found between perceived camera exposure
levels and speeding behaviours, which indicates a range of additional
factors (both legal and non-legal factors as well as driving exposure
levels) influence speed limit non-compliance. Furthermore, multivariate
analysis revealed that higher levels of perceptual certainty were
associated with general speed compliance and perceptions of the severity
and swiftness of sanctions, rather than levels of self-reported camera
exposure. This paper is the first to reveal that while motorists prone
to speed may be more cognisant of speed camera operations, this in
itself does not ensure appropriate behaviour modification."<br><br><br><br><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br clear="all"><div><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr">Mark Fuller<br>324 Rochambeau Ave.<br>Providence, RI 02906<br>+1 732-513-7119<br><span>+49 (0)1577-1848188</span><br><a href="mailto:mark.e.fuller@gmail.com" target="_blank">mark.e.fuller@gmail.com</a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">2018-03-08 15:13 GMT-05:00 Christopher Buecheler <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:cwbuecheler@gmail.com" target="_blank">cwbuecheler@gmail.com</a>></span>:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">"<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">But the fines are effective as a tool to slow folks down. Once a neighbor gets a fine, the whole neighborhood knows to slow the hell down."</span><div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline"><br></span></div><div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">Is there data to back this up, or is it just a gut feeling? I thought Mikaila presented a pretty good argument that this isn't true, and why other methods are actually superior.</span></div><div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline"><br></span></div><div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-color:initial;float:none;display:inline">I'm with you on Rhode Island drivers though.</span></div><span class=""><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div><br></div>-- <br><div class="m_-5572403254419267645gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr">-Christopher Buecheler - @cwbuecheler<br>-<a href="http://cwbuecheler.com" target="_blank">http://cwbuecheler.com</a> | Web, Writing, Cocktails and More<div></div></div></div>
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